A report by Fitch Solutions was recently published, which argues that Russia will increase its gold production capacity within 10 years. According to analysts, these aspirations are strongly correlated with the ongoing and mounting economic sanctions imposed by the United States. Does this mean that Russia will become a market leader?
According to available data and gold market analyses, as long as tensions between Washington and Moscow continue, Russian demand for gold will remain high. Russia already boasts a significant share of the gold production market, amounting to 10.6%. However, its appetite and ambitions go much further.
Referring to statistics, analysts predict that Russian gold production will increase from 11.3 million ounces this year to as much as 15.5 million ounces in 2029. This represents an annual growth rate of 3.5%. If the forecasts prove accurate, Russia's share of global gold production will be 11.6% by the end of the decade.
In the context of Russian aspirations, China cannot be overlooked. According to the report, in order for Beijing to maintain its status as the largest gold producer, it must increase its investments in foreign mines. Analysts predict that the near future will be a period of stagnation for China. The country can expect growth of around 0.2% per annum. This is a significant slowdown compared to previous years, when the average annual production growth was 3.1%. Nevertheless, Beijing's position seems unshakeable and it will remain one of the key players on the market.
Australia should also be mentioned. Data indicates that by 2029, gold production in this country will increase by 2.2% annually. What does this mean in practice? Well, it will change from 11.7 million ounces to 14.2 million ounces by the end of the decade.
Global gold production is expected to increase. According to analysts, we can expect an average growth of 2.5%. Following this trend, today it stands at 106 million ounces, and in 2029 it could be as high as 133 million ounces. It is worth noting that between 2016 and 2019, global gold production recorded annual increases of 1.2%.
Countries are fleeing to the safe haven of gold. They are striving for economic independence and security in the difficult times in which we now live. All we can do is closely monitor the gold market and wait to see whether analysts' forecasts will be confirmed in reality.
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