Gold price forecasts for 2013

Gold price forecasts for 2013

Gold prices have been on an upward trend for 12 years. We forecast that the upward trend in gold prices will continue in 2013. In 2012, gold prices quoted in dollars rose by 7.1%, but due to the strengthening of the zloty by over 10%, Polish investors experienced a slight decline in the value of their gold investments (by 3.8%). 

For the coming year, we predict that the Polish currency may weaken slightly, which will increase the profitability of Poles' investments in gold.

According to numerous experts, gold prices should exceed $1,900 per ounce by the end of the year. 

A survey conducted by Bloomberg shows a similar level. The median of 16 analysts from major investment banks for the last quarter of 2013 is as high as $1,925 per ounce (over 15% above the current price).

Members of The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) predict that the average expected price of gold through September 2013 will be $1,843 per ounce. This represents an increase of more than 5% from current price levels. The average price was determined on the basis of a survey conducted among participants at a conference held in Hong Kong in November. The conference participants included representatives of the largest investment banks, refineries, and precious metal dealers. Increased demand in Asia, particularly in China, as well as further monetary easing in the United States, were identified as the main factors driving the rise in gold prices.

As far as the Polish market is concerned, demand is expected to continue growing. Gold is increasingly gaining recognition among Poles as a good investment and a means of securing assets. Gradually, Poles are also beginning to understand that it is possible to invest small amounts in gold, starting from just a few hundred zlotys. These findings are confirmed by the results of an analysis conducted by Deutsche Bank on the financial prospects of Poles for 2013. In a survey conducted on a representative group of Poles, gold appeared as the second most profitable form of investment with 12% of responses (real estate was in first place with 45% of responses). In addition, when asked the annual question, "What financial activities are you planning for the coming year?", as many as 4% of respondents said they were planning to buy gold, compared to 0% the previous year. Interestingly, 2.6% of respondents are planning to invest in the stock market, compared to 2.9% the previous year.