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- Author of the entry: Mennica Skarbowa
- Date of entry:
Deutsche Bank, which had been very positive about gold for a long time, lowered its forecast for 2013 by 6% to USD 1,533 per ounce. It has cut its forecasts for the coming years even further. For 2014, it forecasts prices of $1,500 per ounce (a 17% reduction from previous forecasts), and for 2015, $1,450 per ounce (a 25% reduction). According to Deutsche Bank, the strengthening dollar is a factor working against gold. In addition, inflation risks have significantly decreased with lower-than-expected economic growth in the US, Europe, and China, as well as announcements by the Fed that QE3 monetary easing may end in 2013.
Credit Suisse sees gold prices falling even lower. It predicts that within a year, the price will drop to USD 1,100 per ounce, and within five years, it will be below USD 1,000 per ounce. The reasons for this situation are essentially the same as those mentioned by Deutsche Bank.
The most bullish forecasts were presented by J.P. Morgan. Although they have been significantly reduced since the last February predictions, they still assume considerable increases from current price levels. Currently, J.P. Morgan predicts that the price of gold in 2013 will be $1,595 per ounce (compared to $1,745 per ounce in the previous forecast). However, by 2015, it estimates that the price will be around $1,650 per ounce. In parallel with the gold price forecast, the silver price forecast for 2013 has been lowered from $30.01 per ounce to $27.89 per ounce.
In May, the World Gold Council (WGC) presented its report for the first quarter of 2013. According to the report, total demand for gold decreased by 13% year-on-year. This was mainly due to gold-investing funds (ETFs), which recorded negative flows of 177 tons (in the first quarter of 2012, they were positive and amounted to 53.2 tons). This change was not offset by increases in jewelry demand (by 12%) or demand for physical gold in the form of bars and investment coins (by 10% to 378 tons). During the same period, the supply of gold increased slightly, by 1%, mainly due to an increase in mining.
